Dry Bulk Market Update: Capesize, Panamax, And Supramax Trends

• Pacific region: Cargo volume remains limited from East Australia and other Pacific sources, but West Australia has seen strong activity for late March and early April.
• Atlantic (C3 – Brazil/West Africa): Few remaining inquiries for early April (1-10), with most fixtures shifting to mid-to-late April.
• Tightening tonnage in the Pacific as several vessels were cleared out by miners/operators and port closures in CJK/North China have further restricted availability.
• Ballasting vessels are decreasing rapidly, supporting rates in the Atlantic.
• Rate Trends:
  • C5 (Australia to China): Fixtures have risen from $9+ pmt to above $11 pmt for prompt dates.
  • C3 (Brazil to China): Fixtures in the mid-to-high $24 pmt range for mid-April dates.

Panamax Market

• Atlantic Basin:
  • Increased cargo flows and vessel shortages have pushed transatlantic rates higher.
  • ECSA grain shipments are driving optimism, though uncertainty around USTR proposals could impact U.S. grain trade.
• Pacific Basin:
  • Strong NoPac grain demand and Australian cargo recovery have led to a bullish market.
  • Owners prefer to stay local rather than ballast to ECSA, inflating April premiums in the South.
  • Indonesian short-haul demand has also strengthened, supporting higher Pacific indices (P5 route).
• Outlook: Continued bullish sentiment, with April ECSA grain shipments and Pacific demand playing key roles.

Supramax Market

• Overall subdued market, with limited fresh inquiries in both basins.
• Atlantic Basin:
  • South Atlantic is balanced, but the North lacks momentum.
  • US Gulf is mixed, with owners resisting lower rates, but charterers maintaining control.
• Pacific Basin:
  • Indonesian coal demand is fluctuating, and prompt tonnage availability remains high.
• South Africa remains strong, as all ballasters are absorbed for ECSA rounds and cargo volumes for end-March/early April are ample.
• Rates mostly sideways, with marginal movement in the 11TC average at $10,924.

Current Rate Trends (USD/Day & USD/Tonne)

Capesize

• Transatlantic (Cont/Far East): $38,125 (+$312)
• Australia to China (C5): $11.1 pmt (+$1.04)
• Pacific RV: $16,464 (+$1,496)

Panamax

• Transatlantic RV: $7,818 (+$1,413)
• Far East/Cont: $6,434 (+$361)
• Pacific RV: $11,846 (+$638)

Supramax

• Atlantic RV: $15,209 (-$99)
• Pacific RV: $12,575 (+$19)
• TCE Cont/Far East: $19,179 (-$259)

1-Year Time Charter Rates (USD/Day)

• Newcastlemax (208′): $26,406 (+$1,131)
• Capesize (180′): $22,406 (+$1,131)
• Kamsarmax (82′): $13,500 (+$500)
• Panamax (75′): $12,250 (+$500)
• Ultramax (64′): $13,500 (unchanged)
• Supramax (58′): $12,000 (unchanged)
• Handysize (38′): $11,000 (unchanged)

Baltic Dry Index (BDI): $1,559 (+$123)

Market Outlook

• Capesize: Rates are strengthening as spot tonnage tightens and Brazil/West Africa cargo demand increases.
• Panamax: Strong demand continues to drive rate gains, especially in the Pacific.
• Supramax: Flat to slightly firmer trends, but needs sustained cargo flow to push rates higher.

Overall, positive momentum in the Capesize and Panamax segments, while the Supramax market remains stable.