Edging Toward Recession, Hinting At Recovery

Credits: Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter
  • High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
  • The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
  • Both leading timeframes remain negative, although a number of the long leading indicators are edging towards neutrality.
  • Coincident indicators turned neutral this week.
  • Altogether, the indicators are telling us that a recession remains near, with preliminary indications that it may not be that long or deep.

A recent news article published in the Seeking Alpha says that Weekly Indicators: Edging Towards Recession, Beginning To Suggest Recovery Afterward.


I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly

Long leading Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Corporate bonds
10 year Treasury
10 yr-2 yr Treasury
10 yr-3mo Treasury
2 yr- Fed funds
Mortgage rates
Purchase Mtg. Apps.
Refi Mtg Apps.
Real Estate Loans
Real M1
Real M2
Corporate Profits
Adj. Fin. Conditions Index x
Leverage Index
Totals: 2 0 12
Short Leading Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Credit Spread
Miller Score
St. L. Fin. Stress Index X
US$ Broad
US$ Major currencies X
Total commodities
Industrial commodities
Stock prices
Regional Fed New Orders
Initial jobless claims
Temporary staffing
Gas prices
Oil prices
Gas Usage
Totals: 2 7 5
Coincident Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Weekly Econ. Index
Open Table
Tax Withholding
Financial Cond. Index x
Totals: 3 4 4


Did you subscribe to our Newsletter?

It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe.

Source: Seeking Alpha


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.