Is China’s Claim Of Rapidly Declining COVID Cases Questionable?

Credits: Renato Marques/Unsplash
  • China’s health authorities have said the Covid wave is past its peak.
  • Rapid decline in both severe cases and deaths in hospitals, but experts remain wary of the government’s official data.
  • According to China’s Center for Disease Control (CDC), the number of critically ill patients in hospitals peaked in the first week of January.

Prof Chi Chun-huei, director of the center for global health at Oregon University, said local officials were incentivised – via punishments and rewards – to under-report infection figures during the zero-Covid policy. Now that policy was gone, they were incentivised to exaggerate infection rates and under-report deaths.

Unreliable Stats

Covid cases have swept across China in recent months, escalating rapidly after the government suddenly ended its zero-Covid policy in early December 2022. Last week a senior health official said 80% of people had been infected in this wave. According to the data, there were 128,000 critically ill Covid patients in Chinese hospitals on 5 January, the highest number reached during this wave. It described a peek inside hospitals over the western new year, with almost 10,000 new critically ill cases a day from 27 December to 3 January. 

The number of deaths in hospitals reached their highest point on 4 January, with 4,273 recorded, before falling 79% by 23 January to 896. The CDC said the number of visits to fever clinics peaked at 2.867m on 23 December, before falling 96.2% to 110,000 on 23 January. A similar decline was observed in visits to rural clinics, with peaks around the same date, it said.

End Of Zero Covid

With the end of zero-Covid, travel restrictions, mass testing, mandatory quarantine and other measures were wound back or dropped entirely. Data collection systems quickly fell far behind the reality on the ground, with fewer than 60 deaths officially recorded in the first few weeks until authorities updated the way deaths are attributed.

The notice from the CDC acknowledged that PCR testing was not keeping up with infections. Daily tests had dropped to 280,000 by Monday, down from 150m on 9 December, and 7.54m on 1 January. Some provinces had enacted systems for collecting the results of residents or allowing residents to self-report, but the figures were “affected by the willingness of residents to test”.

Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?

It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe

Source: TheGuardian


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.