Monthly Panamax Technical Report

By
Mfame Team
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1288

  • Technically the index remains in a trending environment with resistance starting at USD 17,588.
  • The RSI is overbought at 90, however again this is expected when markets enter long term trend. Pullbacks remain bullish above USD 11,469 with wave analysis suggesting that downside moves should hold at or above support levels. 
  • The August futures remain technically bullish in what looks to be a wave 3 in terms of Elliott wave suggesting technical pullbacks should be into support. 
  • A close below the USD 10,794 level would be considered as deep and neutralize the current bull phase. However, the 200-period daily MA is at USD 10,644 and is probably a better gauge to decipher if the technical is bull or bear.

The monthly Panamax technical report is published by Freight Investor Services.

Panamax Index Weekly 

  • Resistance – 17,588, 18,329, 19,070 
  • Support – 13,656, 12,728, 11,469 
  • The last report highlighted on the weekly chart, the weakening technical was approaching a support zone between USD 8,555 and USD 8,331, with a break in the Fibonacci/200 MA signaling downside continuation, and a rejection of the support zone signaling upside continuation.
  • Support held and price has rallied significantly. The RSI at 90 has now entered overbought territory, however this does not mean the index has to correct as the RSI remains in bull territory, it is more a warning that momentum has the potential to slow down at these levels.
  • Technical resistance based on Fibonacci projection levels are at USD 17,588, USD 18,329 and USD 19,070 with support at USD 13,656, USD 12,728 and USD 11,469.
  • Ultimately the index remains in a trending environment, downside moves that hold above the USD 13,656 – USD 12,728 support zone would suggest upside continuation. However, price action that trades below the USD 11,469 level would be considered as deep and neutralize the current bull move.

Panamax August 19 Daily – Rolling Front Month

  • Panamax August 19 Daily – Rolling Front Month
  • Resistance – 14,651, 15,839, 17,168
  • Support –12,925, 12,426, 12,075
  • Like the Index, the August futures are currently in a bullish trending environment with the 55 period MA now crossing the 200 hundred period MA indicating that this is likely to be a longer-term trend rather than a simple market spike. Potentially is a wave 3 within an Elliott cycle.
  • Two points to note: 1) wave 3’s cannot be the shortest wave in a 5-wave cycle so there could be a potential trade above USD 14,651 within this phase otherwise it could cap upside move on any wave 5 that might form, 2) the futures are currently lagging the index by USD 2,500 with over half the month complete.
  • This would suggest that unless the index corrects, we could potentially see further upside soon.
  • Technical resistance is between USD 14,651 and USD 17,168 with support between USD 12,925 and USD 12,075. Price action in the rolling front month below USD 111,62 would be considered as deep and neutralize the current bull phase.

Panamax Q4 19 Daily (Rolling Front QTR)

  • Resistance – 12,304, 12,787, 12,950 
  • Support –11,956, 11,466, 11,160  
  • The Q4 has now rolled into the front Qtr and produced a USD 2k rally which has pushed the RSI into bull territory and is now at 66. Price action is now above all key moving averages and making higher highs and higher lows with the MA’s all pointing in an upward trajectory barring the 200 period MA which is now flat.
  • This would suggest that downside moves should hold at support levels. Technical support is at USD 11,956, USD 11,466 (8 and 21 period EMA’s) and USD 11,160 with resistance at USD 12,304, USD 12,787 and USD 12950.
  • Price action below USD 10,794 would be considered as deep and neutralize the current bull run. However, with the 200 period MA at USD 10,644 this is probably a more major benchmark of bull and bear.

Panamax Cal 20 Daily (Rolling 1 Year)

  • Resistance – 9,989, 9,679, 10,242, 10,742
  • Support – 9,861, 9,634, 9,398
  • Price action for the Cal 20 remains near-term technically bullish based on the futures making higher highs and higher lows. This is supported by the RSI which at 63 is in bullish territory.
  • However, price does remain below the 200-period daily MA at USD 10,232 (but above the 200- period weekly MA) suggesting that if we are going to see further upside we will need to close above this level.
  • A secondary resistance is also seen at the fractal high from late February at USD 10,242 which needs to be broken for the longer-term technical picture to be considered as bullish.
  • Downside moves that close below the USD 9,679 fractal support would create a fresh market low indicating the technical has entered a corrective phase with a near-term target at the 55 period MA at USD 9,398. A close below the MA would weaken the technical suggesting we could remain in range.

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Source: Freight Investor Services