- As eco ships start to take a growing share of the fleet (‘modern’ eco vessels now 28.9% of total GT), various implications for earning potential, asset values, and charter market complexity are emerging.
- Clarksons estimates that 26.6% of global tonnage was “eco” twelve months ago, and just 14.6% at start-2018.
- The overall orderbook as a % of fleet capacity is ~10% – the figure is 27.2% for containers, 7.0% for bulkcarriers and 4.5% for tankers.
With shipowners continuing to invest in vessels that are technologically ready to burn alternative fuels like ammonia and hydrogen, the green transformation of the shipping sector is gaining momentum as reported by Offshore Energy.
Alternative fuels
The use of alternative fuels has increased, with 4.8% of the fleet (2021: 3.7%, 2017: 2.3%) now operating and 43.8% of the orderbook in tonnage (GT) terms (2021: 28.2%, 2017: 10.4%) capable of using alternative fuels or propulsion.
According to data from Clarksons Research, the fleet’s gross tonnage is 4.5%, and its orderbook represents 44% alternative fuels. With 59% of all newbuild orders by tonnage, this represents a record share for alternative fuel orders in 2022.
For comparison, 479 units of the newbuild tonnage ordered in 2021, up from 211 units in 2020 and 46 units in 2016, were capable of running on alternative fuels.
Future optionality
Of the orderbook, 38.9% of tonnage is set to use LNG (781 units), 2.2% to use LPG (86 units) and 4.3% due to use other alternative fuels (c.260 units; including methanol (42), ethane (11), biofuels (5), hydrogen (12) and battery/hybrid propulsion (c.200)).
With future optionality over fuel choice continuing to gain traction, there are now over 320 “LNG ready” ships in the fleet and 99 on the orderbook, while there are 130 “ammonia ready” and 6 “hydrogen ready” vessels on order.
These include vessels that have been deemed multiple fuels / fuel ready to provide future optionality.
While scrubber retrofitting activity has slowed (September 2020: ~120 per month, September 2022: ~15 per month), newbuild uptake grew slightly in 2021, while 60 scrubber fitted units have been ordered in 2022 so far.
The current price differential between HSFO and VLSFO remains highly significant (Rotterdam/Singapore: $210/$320), having reached record highs earlier in the year.
- Energy-saving technologies (ESTs) have been fitted on over 5,550 ships, accounting for 24.5% of fleet tonnage: this includes propeller ducts, rudder bulbs, Flettner rotors, wind kites, air lubrication systems and others.
- Carbon capture scrubber uptake is in “early days” and only 19 vessels have installations fitted / pending.
- BWMS retrofit programme ongoing: majority of fleet tonnage (70.6%) now BWMS-fitted.
- Ports globally with LNG bunkering have increased from ~60 to ~150 in past five years and may reach ~250 by 2026. Huge investment at ports is needed: only 171 ports (out of ~6,000) have shore side power, while over 1,700 vessels are fitted/set to be fitted with shore power connections;
Fleet renewal program
“Although shipping’s huge fleet renewal program is in its infancy, we are already seeing “tiered” markets develop.
By the end 2023, we project that 30% of the fleet tonnage will be modern “eco”, 24% will be scrubber fitted, 6% will be alternative fuelled and 25% will have an Energy Saving Technology (EST),” Clarksons said.
“Besides emissions, we expect a record fuel bill for shipping in 2022 to increase focus / premiums for fuel efficient tonnage.”
Furthermore, industry bodies are urging for a well-to-wake approach to calculating emissions of alternative fuels as a way of ensuring overall emissions reduction targets are achieved.
As explained by Clarksons, this has created the likelihood of regional divergence and complexity (e.g. EU, US).
Shipping Industry Emissions: 850mt & 2.3% of global CO2
Shipping contributes 2.3% of global CO2 emissions (2008: ~1bnt of CO2, 3% of global).
That being said, the average age of the world fleet is increasing, standing at 12.2 years on a GT weighted basis (up from a low of 9.7 years in 2013).
For the bulk carrier fleet, the average age is 11.5 years, for tankers it is 12.1 years and for the container fleet it is 14.2 years.
Today, 28.1% of global tonnage is aged over 15 years.
“Our theoretical CII rating estimates suggest around a third of vessels will be D or E rated if current operational behaviour continues (~29% for tanker, 33% bulker, 29% container), rising towards 50% if they are still trading in 2026 and have not modified speed or specification,” Clarksons said.
Uneven fleet renewal
The prevailing propulsion technology uncertainty and associated residual value risk concerns are contributing to a relatively short orderbook (still ~10% of fleet) and expectations of relatively low fleet growth in the medium-term.
As a result, it is unlikely that the unprecedented fleet renewal needed to decarbonise will progress evenly.
Clarksons estimates that emissions policies could impact supply / demand balances via changes in chartering policies, demolition levels and, in particular, speed with upside volatility for freight / charter rates.
Namely, average container vessel speed is down 25% since 2008.
“Our scenarios suggest total newbuild orders will increase from $64bn (2016-2020) to $139bn a year (2021-2030).
Financing fleet renewal (+shoreside infrastructure), may become a long-term challenge without new sources or “green” credentials established,” the shipbroker said.
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Source: Offshore Energy
