A recent report by Gibson Brokers suggests that the imbalanced age distribution within the global tanker fleet will result in a scarcity of available tonnage in the coming years, as published on Splash247.
Global fleet ageing
The ageing of the global fleet, combined with a limited number of new ship orders, has resulted in a growing concern for the tanker industry. According to Gibson data, 8% of the fleet over 25,000 deadweight tons (dwt) is over 20 years old, with many of these vessels already engaged in non-conventional trades and storage operations. Additionally, 25% of the total fleet falls within the 16-to-20-year age bracket, with a higher proportion of Handy, panamax, and Aframax vessels in this category. Although there has been a slight increase in new tanker orders in the first half of 2023, more is needed to meet the upcoming demand for replacement tonnage. Gibson warns that the tanker industry may face a situation similar to the shortage of tankers in the oil industry when scrapping becomes necessary, leading to an inadequate supply of tankers to meet existing demand.
Dark fleet
According to analysts at Xclusiv Shipbrokers, the global tanker fleet is at risk of shrinking due to a combination of a low orderbook and the ageing of existing vessels. The orderbook reached its lowest level since 1996 in February, indicating a lack of new ship orders. Approximately 34% of the active fleet is over 16 years old, contributing to the overall ageing of the fleet. The average age of the global tanker fleet has risen from 10.1 years five years ago to 11.7 years, as reported by Clarksons. The number of tankers over 20 years old, which were previously a rarity, is expected to reach 11% of total tanker demand by mid-2025, according to Braemar data. These older tankers are often part of the “dark fleet,” transporting cargo for countries such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the work rate of ships over 20 years old, measured by average tonne-miles performed per ship each quarter, has increased by 84%, posing concerns about oil spills and environmental risks for port states.
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Source: Splash247
