In a recently published report, Rystad Energy notes that the coronavirus pandemic should be expected to last for the entirety of 2020 and provides possible scenarios and impact on the global energy markets, reports Safety4Sea.
Mitigating the Virus Impact
The new coronavirus pandemic has spread with unprecedented speed, and many nations are turning away from the goal of containment in favor of “flattening the curve”, mitigating the acute impact of the virus in an effort to spread out the number of infected over time and prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.
Among many key findings, the report mentions the following:
- Only 5% of coronavirus cases are actually reported. Looking at the current global situation, several countries are at risk of explosive infection spread if immediate quarantine measures are not implemented.
- The epidemic may collapse global oil demand by more than 10 million bpd in April 2020. In an Effective Prevention Scenario global oil demand could contract by more than 11 million barrels per day (bpd) year-over-year in April, with jet fuel down 2 million bpd, road fuel down 5 million bpd and other demand segments down 3 million bpd.
- In this scenario, demand could begin to see year-over-year growth as soon as September or October.
- In a scenario aimed at managing the spread of the virus over time, global oil demand could decrease by 10 million bpd in April compared to last year, and see a slower recovery period.
- With a glum oil price outlook, the oil and gas industry will be severely impacted. We see that free cash flow (FCF) for E&P companies will fall considerably in 2020.
- The actual impact on oil prices will be determined by global storage capacity, as the recent flood of oil from Saudi Arabia will be multiplied by the coming tsunami of demand destruction.
- Implied stock builds could amount to as much as 1 billion barrels by the coming summer, above the remaining capacity for crude and products in the entire supply chain.
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Source: Safety4Sea
